US to send Patriot missile defence system to Ukraine: All you need to know
The United States is in the midst of finalising plans to send the Patriot missile defence system to Ukraine, said media reports citing officials, while a formal announcement is awaited. The ground-based air defence system is something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought from its western allies for some time now.
While it is considered one of the most advanced air defence systems by the US, there are reports citing experts saying that it might not be effective enough for the conflict in Ukraine. This comes as Kyiv is facing massive blackouts affecting millions and according to the United Nations half of the country’s energy infrastructure has been attacked and destroyed reportedly by Russian missiles and drones.
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What is the Patriot missile system?
The MIM-104 Patriot is the US army’s top-tier surface-to-air guided missile system which is manufactured by the Virginia-based Raytheon Technologies. The defence system is known for targeting ballistic and cruise missiles as well as manned and unmanned aircraft that was first deployed in the 1980s.
A typical Patriot battery includes eight launchers which can hold up to four missile interceptors each, it is also equipped with ground radar to detect and track its target, computers, power generating equipment, and a control station. Therefore, unlike other smaller air defence systems, the Patriot requires at least 90 personnel to properly operate it, the training for which takes months.
However, Washington has previously trained Ukrainian troops on how to operate their other complex missile systems which include High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMRAS). Additionally, the US has also previously sent mid-range defensive National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) to Ukraine.
The US Army said that it currently has 16 Patriot battalions. Notably, the Patriot batteries are regularly deployed across the world, they are currently being operated in or bought by at least 16 countries, including, Taiwan, Japan, Israel, South Korea, Qatar, and so on, reported the Associated Press.
The US has also previously sent Patriot missile batteries to NATO allies like Poland as well as the middle eastern nations of Saudi Arabia and Iraq to counter threats by Iran and its proxies. The constantly upgraded air defence system costs at least four million dollars per round while the launchers cost at least $10 million each, said a report by the think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), earlier this year.
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What do we know about the proposed transfer so far?
Three officials told CNN that the plan still needs approval from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin before being sent to President Joe Biden for the final signature. Reuters, citing sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that an official announcement could come as early as Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon during a press briefing declined to comment on the reports. While nothing is heard from the Ukrainian officials about the reports either. However, Kyiv recently held a high-level meeting with the US, said Zelensky’s office to Reuters.
The media reports citing officials also said that once approved the missile defence system will be sent in a matter of days and the Ukrainian army personnel will be trained to use them at a US Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany.
This comes as Kyiv has sought these missiles for months now but there have been several obstacles including logistical challenges of delivering the air defence system as well as operating it, reported CNN citing an official.
In addition to the months of training and needing at least more than a dozen personnel to operate the air defence system the Biden administration is also concerned that this move will provoke Russia while there is also the risk that one of their missiles could enter Moscow.
This would further escalate the conflict, reported AP. Notably, the US has also limited HIMRAS’ launchers to targets inside Ukraine. However, noting the intensifying Russian missile attack, the official said that despite the issues, “the reality of what is going on the ground” has led the Biden administration to make this decision, the report added.
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How effective would Patriot’s deployment be in Ukraine?
The official who spoke on the condition of anonymity also said that while one Patriot battery has a long firing range it only covers a limited broad area and that the defence system which is usually deployed as a battalion (four batteries) will not be the case for Ukraine which will only be receiving one. Therefore, it will protect smaller areas like a military base but not large cities like Kyiv.
Whereas, a retired Army lieutenant colonel who had led the Ukraine policy during the former US president Donald Trump’s administration, Alexander Vindman, told Reuters that the system is “very, very significant.” He added, the Patriot missile system will be “quite capable” of dealing with challenges that Russia poses in Ukraine, particularly if Moscow deploys its short-range ballistic missiles.
Another former senior military official with the knowledge system said that while it will send a strong message and will be effective against short-range ballistic missiles, one battery will not be a game changer for the conflict. Echoing a similar sentiment, an official at the CSIS, Tom Karako told the AP that the Patriot system can help defend Ukraine against Iran-supplied ballistic missiles.
He added that while the air defence system could also intercept a tactical nuclear device if Russian President Vladimir Putin were to move forward with his veiled threats of using them made earlier, it would depend on how it is delivered. Furthermore, the Patriot is not known for its performance against small drones.
In 2017, when Houthis attacked the US Patriot system in Saudi Arabia with Qasef kamikaze drones they targeted the air defence system’s radar which Karako says is a powerful one and better at identifying targets than the Ukrainian S-300 system. However, the attack left the system’s radar out of order long enough for the Houthis to fire their long-range missiles which couldn’t be intercepted in time.
The incident was reportedly caught on video which has since raised many questions about the Patriot’s success rate. This comes as Russia has reportedly been using Iran-made kamikaze drones to attack critical infrastructure in Ukraine, including power plants which have left millions of homes across the country in darkness.
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Russia’s response to the potential deal
While the deal has not even been finalised, the Kremlin has already warned the US that the Patriot air defence system would be a legitimate target for Russian strikes against Ukraine. Russian spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said that the missile defence system would “definitely” be a target, but later also said that he did not want to comment on unconfirmed media reports.
On the other hand, Moscow’s mission in Washington, in a statement said, that even without the Patriot systems the US is “getting deeper and deeper into the conflict” and that this proposed transfer would lead to consequences.