SpaceX: Elon Musk's new rocket has the potential to alter the space race
Tuesday, October 12, 2021 | Chimniii Desk
Highlights
The new SpaceX rocket will eventually be roughly 400ft taller than NASA's Saturn V rocket that launched the Apollo missions to the moon, and its 33 engines will deliver twice the thrust. It has been only 13 years since it became the first private business to launch its own rocket into orbit, disrupting a hitherto dominated sector by nation states. By the end of the decade, he said, the space launch market will be worth $37.5 billion annually – five times as much in 2021.According to many in the industry, this should allow more than enough opportunity for at least one significant competitor to SpaceX to emerge. As a result, Collar at SES believes the Starship will have "a capability that is more suited to Mars than commercial satellites. According to backers such as Diamandis, Musk should be taken seriously when he talks about abandoning the Falcon 9 and refocusing all of SpaceX's efforts on the Starship and the aim of reaching Mars. "
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A sparkling stainless steel rocket has been rising from the salt marshes at the southernmost edge of Texas, bordering the Gulf of Mexico.
The new SpaceX rocket will eventually be roughly 400ft taller than NASA's Saturn V rocket that launched the Apollo missions to the moon, and its 33 engines will deliver twice the thrust. Elon Musk, SpaceX's creator, envisions it as a critical component of one day creating a human colony on Mars.
However, the rocket, called the Starship, has the potential to have a far more immediate impact on a space industry already shook by Musk's ambitions. Musk's supporters argue that with the ability to carry up to 100 tonnes into low orbit around the Earth, he is going to alter the economics of the launch business.
"It's game over for the existing launch businesses," argues US space entrepreneur Peter Diamandis. "At the moment, there is no vehicle on the design board that could compete."
Musk's space company still has a ways to go before living up to the promise, including obtaining regulatory approval to launch Starship from its Texas facility and demonstrating that it can reach space reliably while returning both of the rocket's stages for reuse — a critical step toward lowering launch costs.
Additionally, many experts doubt whether a huge rocket meant for colonisation of another planet can double as an all-purpose vehicle for more varied and mundane duties closer to Earth. However, SpaceX's success in transforming its current rocket, the Falcon 9, into the primary workhorse for space exploration has caused concern among others in the commercial space business.
Source: ft
"If you're not careful, SpaceX will be the only game in town," warns Fatih Ozmen, co-founder of Sierra Nevada Corp, a privately held US corporation contracted by Nasa to transport goods to the International Space Station. Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos' private space enterprise, makes a more direct claim: SpaceX may eventually gain "monopolistic dominance" of US deep space research.
Musk's venture has accelerated its ascension to a dominating position in the emerging commercial space economy. It has been only 13 years since it became the first private business to launch its own rocket into orbit, disrupting a hitherto dominated sector by nation states. It has also surpassed contractors such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, whose joint venture, United Launch Alliance, previously served as the US space launch flag bearer — albeit with Russian engines.
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SpaceX's ascent has been underscored in recent months by a stunning string of victories.
Among them is a $2.9 billion contract with Nasa to deploy the Starship to land astronauts on the moon as soon as 2024. The space agency's decision to select only one provider for this programme, after previously stating it would select two, prompted Blue Origin's warning. NASA officials point out that they have granted SpaceX only one mission, leaving the door open for future landings to be performed by other vendors. However, Blue Origin asserts that upgrading its systems to operate with the Starship will necessitate design changes, effectively locking the agency into a long-term reliance on SpaceX. Musk then surpassed Bezos for the second time late last month. Only a few weeks ago, both the Amazon founder and Sir Richard Branson made personal flights to the edge of space aboard their respective companies' rockets. Their brief moments in microgravity were surpassed when SpaceX lifted four passengers more than five times higher on a three-day joyride around the Earth, establishing the first all-civilian crew in space.
Nasa's picture displays astronauts from Artemis on the Moon, as envisaged by a new Nasa programme. (Source:NASA/Associated Press)
SpaceX recently announced the first 500,000 orders for its Starlink broadband network, establishing the company as the first of a new generation of broadband communications firms that would operate from a constellation of low-earth orbit satellites, around 500 kilometres above the earth.
And Nasa announced last week that two astronauts booked to go on a Boeing spacecraft would instead fly on SpaceX's spacecraft. The business that defined an earlier age of aerospace has encountered too many technological hurdles in developing its first commercially developed spaceship, putting it considerably behind what was until recently a small start-up. Please utilise the sharing options located at the top or side of articles via the share button.
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Science of the Rocket
The Falcon 9 is at the centre of SpaceX's string of triumphs, having reduced the cost of space travel and serving as a springboard for both the company's broader business and Musk's eventual aim of reaching Mars.
"It is truly the most successful rocket ever built in terms of performance, cost, and reliability," Diamandis asserts.
A composite of nine long exposures depicts the journey of SpaceX's Starlink satellites in New Mexico's Bisti Wilderness.
According to BryceTech, a space research and consulting organisation, SpaceX's share of the worldwide launch industry, excluding China, surpassed 50% for the first time in the first half of 2021. And, while China launched almost as many rockets as SpaceX during that time period, the US company launched nearly three times the amount of payload into space.
The same strategies that made the Falcon 9 the most extensively utilised rocket of the era are now being applied to the Starship. They resound with many of the factors that contributed to Musk's electric car firm, Tesla's, meteoric success.
The success of Musk and SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell in bringing disruptive technology into mainstream manufacturing has been paramount. For the Falcon 9, this entailed 3D printing the rocket's engines, the most complicated component, and reusing the primary booster for future missions.
Thomas Pesquet, an astronaut with the European Space Agency, and Megan McArthur, a Nasa astronaut, celebrate with their Crew 2 teammates. Japan's Akihiko Hoshide and NASA's Shane Kimbrough are greeted on the International Space Station by Crew 1 in April 2021. NASA Television/Reuters
To grasp novel procedures, SpaceX worked on nearly every detail of designing and manufacturing its own rockets rather than depending on vendors, with Musk serving as chief engineer in the early days to motivate his team. SpaceX also took on the entire development risk, rather than relying on fixed payments from Nasa, requiring a considerably higher level of financial discipline. As a result, the space agency believes that SpaceX spent $400 million developing the Falcon 9 rocket, which was ten times less expensive than a rocket developed through standard government contracting.
Another advantage both SpaceX and Tesla have in common is their easy access to cheap financing, owing to the high valuations investors are willing to place on these businesses. Musk raised more than $6.5 billion for the firm in the private market earlier this year, boosting its worth to $74 billion. According to CNBC, share transactions by some of its investors have since increased the company's worth to more than $100 billion.
The majority of competitors must produce income from their present operations in order to support new endeavours, according to Steve Collar, CEO of satellite provider SES. SpaceX's ease of access to investors has enabled company to take far larger risks, he adds.
As a result of the plentiful funding and the company's access to its own launch service, Starlink was able to start its broadband service ahead of would-be competitors such as OneWeb and Amazon's Kuiper.
To stay ahead of the competition, Starlink has taken technical risks with its satellite designs, and the company is already on its third generation of technology. However, even if it ends up writing off billions of dollars' worth of satellites in the process of developing its constellation, Collar believes the loss would not be as detrimental to the corporation as it would be to a competitor without access to such cheap funding.
Support personnel gather beside SpaceX's Crew Dragon Resilience spacecraft in May 2021, shortly after it landed in the Gulf of Mexico. Bill Ingalls/NASA/Getty Images
Rivals argue that as a result, SpaceX risks pushing out smaller startups that lack SpaceX's scale and finance advantages. Blue Origin, which has filed a formal protest against Nasa's moon landing award, asserted that losing the contract would deprive it of a critical market for its New Glenn rocket, which has already cost $2.5 billion to create and has not yet left the launch pad.
SpaceX's vertically integrated production strategy may also deprive other US suppliers of business, Amazon and others fear, eroding the country's broader industrial infrastructure established to support its long-term space ambitions.
However, it appears as though SpaceX's clients — even those in government — do not share those reservations.
"Before SpaceX, we essentially just had ULA, so we're in a better position than we were," says Phil McAlister, NASA's director of commercial space travel.
Diamandis continues, "The US government is fortunate to have a company like SpaceX situated here," he says, because its efficiency benefit the US space programme directly. And corporations who compete with SpaceX in various areas appear to be very content to use the company's launch services despite their support for a rival.
"When they entered the [satellite] industry, it scared people a little bit — but I don't believe it should have," says Collar of SES, which continues to rely largely on SpaceX rockets.
At SpaceX's Texas launch facility in Boca Chica, near Brownsville, Texas, space enthusiasts inspect a prototype of the company's Starship spacecraft. Loren Eliott/Getty Images
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Demand is soaring
Concerns that a vertically integrated rocket business could jeopardise a critical supply chain are also dismissed in many sectors of the burgeoning commercial space industry. The majority of start-up rocket firms have followed a similar model. Jory Bell, a partner at Playground Global, a venture capital firm focused on the space business, notes that the old supply chain has always served more political than commercial purposes. With suppliers located throughout the country, a greater number of politicians can claim success by securing a piece of government space contracts.
The most compelling argument against monopoly risk, however, is that the falling cost of reaching space has resulted in a surge in demand far greater than any single corporation can handle. The majority of it comes from new communications networks hoping to launch constellations of thousands of satellites, as well as from more countries keen to reach space for national defence or to participate in deeper space exploration.
"This is a market that will remain supply restricted for a long period of time," says Edison Yu, a Deutsche Bank analyst. By the end of the decade, he said, the space launch market will be worth $37.5 billion annually – five times as much in 2021.
According to many in the industry, this should allow more than enough opportunity for at least one significant competitor to SpaceX to emerge. And, although some established launch companies suffer due to outdated technologies, uncompetitive production processes, or cultures centred on government contracting, a new generation of innovative rocket companies is rapidly forming.
Along with Bezos' Blue Origin, they include Relativity Space, a firm founded by former SpaceX employees that has collected $1.3 billion and intends to use 3D printing to manufacture entire rockets, not just the engines.
"We don't need to beat SpaceX; we simply need to beat everyone else," Bell of Playground Global, one of Relativity's financial supporters, argues. A new generation of engineers and space entrepreneurs trained by SpaceX is assisting in the establishment of an entire industry around the company's concepts, he noted.
The Falcon 9, which has reduced the cost of reaching space, lies at the centre of SpaceX's string of accomplishments. Mathalone, Reginald NurPhoto/Reuters
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Beyond satellites
When the Starship's maiden orbital flight occurs, it will continue to ripple across the space industry. Its sheer size will alter the economics of orbital entry, establishing a new pricing standard against which others will presumably be measured.
According to Yu, the Falcon 9 has already reduced the price for consumers wishing to share a launch to $5,000 per kilogramme, roughly a third of what it was previously. Once Starship is fully operational, he says, the price will drop to $1,000, and possibly as low as $500.
It remains to be seen how well-suited it will be for the satellite launches that are the lifeblood of today's space industry. Due to the fact that Starship will be unable to deposit its massive payloads into several orbits, the satellites it carries will require their own propulsion to manoeuvre into place, significantly increasing their cost, according to Yu.
"For some things, you need a lot of mass in orbit — and for others, you need speed, agility, and precision," says Dan Hart, chief executive officer of Virgin Orbit, which launched its first rocket into orbit this year from beneath the wing of a Boeing 747.
As a result, Collar at SES believes the Starship will have "a capability that is more suited to Mars than commercial satellites."
Additionally, others question SpaceX's commitment to competing for market share in the normal satellite launch sector in the coming years. Falcon 9 was always envisioned as a stepping stone, used to establish the cash flow and technologies necessary to propel the corporation much further into space.
According to backers such as Diamandis, Musk should be taken seriously when he talks about abandoning the Falcon 9 and refocusing all of SpaceX's efforts on the Starship and the aim of reaching Mars. "He destroys his old items and burns the ship," he explains, which is one of the reasons he frequently succeeds in new ventures.
With a monopoly on today's launch market, it's probably far too early to write the Falcon 9's demise. However, when the Starship ultimately ascends to the heavens, it is likely to mark the end of one age of space travel.
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