Elon Musk says SpaceX's first orbital Starship mission is "very likely" in Q1 2023.
A busy week of stress-testing appears to have cleared the way for the company to transport a finished Super Heavy booster to the pad. In order to complete some of the riskiest and most challenging tests it has ever conducted at its Starbase rocket development facilities, the Starship booster is expected to use the same launch mount.
Advertisement
We have a real shot at late February. March launch attempt appears highly likely.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2023
Advertisement
Super Heavy Booster 7 could soon attempt a full static fire test of all 33 of its Raptor 2 engines after a drawn out period of qualification testing. The first full-stack wet dress rehearsal is expected to take place on top of Super Heavy B7 before or after that crucial test. If the testing produces the results that the company wants, it could attempt its first launch as early as February or March of next year.
Advertisement
BOOSTER 7
Super Heavy B7 first left SpaceX’s Starbase factory in March 2022 and has been in a continuous flux of testing, repairs, upgrades, and more testing in the nine months since
The 69-meter-tall (225 ft), 9-meter-wide (30 ft) steel rocket was damaged at least twice in April and July, requiring weeks of substantial repairs. Booster 7 testing has been mostly successful since the last close call, and neither instance permanently crippled the Starship booster. Super Heavy B7 completed six static fire tests of anywhere from one to fourteen of its 33 Raptor engines after returning to the OLS.
Advertisement
It is almost certain that it will become the most powerful rocket ever tested. On January 8th, 2023, the rocket was rolled back to the OLS for the seventh time. According to statements made by CEO Musk and a presentation from a NASA official, the last major test between Booster 7 and flight readiness is a full 33-engine static fire. B7's 33 Raptor 2 engines could produce up to 7600 tons. The most powerful rocket stage in the history of spaceflight is likely to be Starship.
SHIP 24
Starship prototype S24’s path has been a bit less rocky
After its first tests in May 2022, the ship needed some less obvious repairs. There have been three static fire tests completed by ship 24. If one of those tests ignites all six of S 24's Raptor engines, it will qualify them for an orbital launch attempt.
Advertisement
The Starship was removed from its test stand after a series of mysterious repairs. With Booster 7 awaiting installation on Starbase's orbital launch mount and Ship 24 removed from its test stand, it appears that SpaceX may attempt a different test before Super Heavy's full static fire.
Advertisement
Instead, they could start by stacking Ship 24 and Booster 7 and conduct a full-stack wet dress rehearsal before shifting focus to Booster 7's riskier static fire. A wet dress rehearsal is a routine test conducted before a rocket launch and is usually designed to mimic every aspect of a launch save for engine ignition and liftoff. The same rocket would need to pass all of the checks in order for it to be cleared for launch.
Advertisement
For the largest rocket ever built, a full propellant load means filling both stages with 5000 tons of liquid oxygen and liquid methane propellant. The rocket needs to be filled fast enough to keep the propellant supercool. Booster 7 and Ship 24 will be tested just as much by the first full-stack WDR. Many Starship WDRs have been conducted, but not with Ship 24.
It has never fully filled a Super Heavy booster with real propellant, let alone both stages at the same time. It is likely that issues will be discovered as the company pushes the envelope.
OLS
In the spirit of caution, SpaceX has even taken the unusual step of stress-testing Starship’s orbital launch mount with a custom jig
It was in the first week of 2023 that the jig was used to load the OLM's 20 hold-down clamps with hundreds of tons of ballast. Proof tests of Super Heavy B4 and B7 have likely subjected the OLM to 2000 tons of force, but a full Starship will weigh more than the OLM has experienced to date.
Advertisement
This extra-cautious step has likely reduced the risk of the launch mount's structure failing during wet-dress and static fire testing. According to Musk, there is a chance that the spaceship will be ready for a late February launch attempt. Musk said that a full-stack WDR and 33 engine static fire would probably be completed in a few weeks. It is clear that SpaceX is more committed to avoiding a catastrophic failure than ever before.