SpaceX chose 7 probable landing locations for Starship on Mars. Will SpaceX get humans to Mars by 2026?

Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Chimniii Desk

Key Highlights

Elon Musk remains sure that his rocket business SpaceX will land humans on Mars in 2026, when he plans to establish a human community.
Despite the fact that the Starship rocket has been tried and tested, Autry noted that the booster, life support system, reentry system, and capability to refuel on Mars have not been tested – and some components have not even been created.
If all of the launches, new technology, system tests, and landings happen as planned and Musk maintains sufficient cashflow, DeBruin believes SpaceX might reach Mars by 2026.
However, there are concerns about the bulk required to land on Mars, DeBruin added.

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7 probable landing locations for Starship on Mars

In September 2019, SpaceX stated that it had chosen five potential Starship landing locations on Mars. The candidate locations were in Southern Arcadia Planitia east of Erebus Montes and in Phlegra Montes.

Since then, SpaceX has held multiple workshops with members of the Mars science community to analyse and restrict the list of potential landing sites on Mars. Each site must meet the following criteria:

1. near proximity to major water/ice deposits, a needed resource for in situ propellant generation and a consumable for habitation;

2. elevation below -2 km (relative to the MOLA geoid) that supports the delivery of heavy payloads, with -3 km desired;

3. Solar energy and thermal management require a latitude of 40°, and proximity to the equator is advantageous;

4. multiple distinct landing places within a few kilometres of one another to support the numerous missions required to build an outpost;

5. Slopes should be 5° over a 10 m length scale, and the probability of encountering a rock more than 0.5 m high (1 m diameter) should be 5%;

6. the landing site must be radar reflective to enable distance measurements to the surface, and it must be load bearing to support the spacecraft upon touchdown.

Recently, an abstract with the study's conclusions was published (the study's findings will be presented in two weeks at the 52nd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference), identifying four prime and three secondary potential Starship landing sites in Phlegra Montes, Erebus Montes, and Southern Arcadia Planitia for further study:

1. PM-1 has the lowest latitude and elevation of the Phlegra Montes sites, a strong association with LDAs (local ice deposits expressed as lobate debris aprons), well-developed polygons (one of the indicators of ice-related morphologies), and the highest SWIM (Subsurface Water Ice Mapping) score for ice geomorphic indicators;

2. The site AP-1 (Arcadia Planitia) looks to be one of the safest, with a modest combined SWIM score for ice.

3. According to radar returns (from the Arcadia Planitia locations) and geomorphology, AP-9 has the thickest ice. Although it gets the highest combined SWIM score for ice, it appears rocky and rugged.

4. The strongest radar return for shallow ice and the highest aggregate SWIM score among the Erebus Montes locations are found at EM-16, which shows a clear link with an LDA with surrounding brain terrain.

5. The site AP-8 (Arcadia Planitia) appears to be one of the safest, with the best neutron and combined SWIM scores for ice.

6. EM-15 (Erebus Montes) contains well-developed polygons, surrounding cerebral terrain, and appears smooth; it is connected with a conspicuous but less extensive LDA.

7. PM-7 is the safest of the Phlegra locations since it is next to lineated valley fill (due to glacial flow).

We highlighted selected ★ prime and ★ secondary sites on the map:

7 potential sites for SpaceX Starship Mars landing

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Will SpaceX get humans to Mars by 2026?

Elon Musk says spacex will land humans on Mars by 2026 meme - United States Memes

Elon Musk remains sure that his rocket business SpaceX will land humans on Mars in 2026, when he plans to establish a human community.

Musk stated in a recent wide-ranging interview with the audio-only Clubhouse app that it will take "five and a half years" for a crewed voyage on SpaceX's Starship rocket to land on Mars.

"What matters is that we construct a self-sustaining culture on Mars," he remarked.

However, Musk's schedule for reaching Mars has shifted significantly during the last few years. In 2017, the billionaire stated that his "aspirational" plan included SpaceX sending cargo ships to Mars in 2022, followed by a crewed mission two years later. Musk claimed in October that SpaceX has a "realistic likelihood" of delivering an uncrewed Starship rocket to Mars in 2024 – two years later than he had anticipated. In December, he reiterated his desire, stating that he is "very sure" SpaceX will launch an uncrewed rocket to the planet in 2024, followed by a crewed trip in 2026. With five and a half years remaining, experts believe SpaceX may have to wait a few more years to accomplish its mission. Greg Autry, a commercial space industry analyst, told Insider that Musk will reach Mars in 2029 or 2031, either on his own or in collaboration with NASA. The window is determined by the Earth's alignment with Mars, which occurs once every 26 months. However, Autry cautioned that space missions are notoriously difficult and rarely completed on time - Musk's plan is no exception. "It is a matter of financial resources and willpower. Elon possesses both "'He stated. According to Autry, all of his ventures, from Tesla to SpaceX to the Boring Company, have extraordinarily aggressive timelines and frequently take far longer than anticipated. "That is not to diminish either the strength of establishing an aggressive deadline or the magnificence of what he ultimately accomplishes," he remarked. Musk stated in January 2020 that by 2050, he intends to transport one million people to Mars. This will require the construction of 1,000 Starship rockets over a ten-year period – or 100 Starships each year – and the launch of an average of three Starships every day. "There will be plenty of employment opportunities on Mars!" he continued. SpaceX launched a Starship rocket prototype 10 kilometres above Boca Chica, Texas, but it detonated during a landing attempt. This is the second launch of a Starship rocket that has exploded in flames. It was the first time last year in December.

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Despite the fact that the Starship rocket has been tried and tested, Autry noted that the booster, life support system, reentry system, and capability to refuel on Mars have not been tested – and some components have not even been created. This means that it will almost certainly take longer to develop the technology necessary to establish a society on Mars beyond Starship.

"There is a great deal of work going on there that is being obscured by the dramatic landing system tests," Autry explained.

Musk's lofty goals are the result of a combination of motivational charm, planning error, and being "ubercapable of accomplishing things," Autry added. "When someone considers the time required to build a rocket, he may be guilty of visualising 5,000 Elon Musks working at SpaceX and even more at his suppliers and in the governmental agencies required to licence or fund his project," Autry explained, adding that this is not practical. According to Kevin J DeBruin, a retired NASA rocket scientist, Musk has only three launch options remaining due to the planets' alignment, which allows for testing and ensuring everything works correctly. If all of the launches, new technology, system tests, and landings happen as planned and Musk maintains sufficient cashflow, DeBruin believes SpaceX might reach Mars by 2026. However, there are concerns about the bulk required to land on Mars, DeBruin added.

Six times the mass we currently possess is required, he stated. "We require new landing technologies that will enable us to land a greater mass on the surface of Mars for humans to dwell, operate, and then return home."

Biological concerns may also be involved. According to DeBruin, the longest period of continuous human spaceflight is little under a year, but the Mars mission will take much longer. "We will continue to see deterioration of the human body," he said.

According to Steve Nutt, a materials science and aerospace engineering professor at the University of Southern California, Musk makes grandiose projections on purpose to "inspire his staff to think large." "One could argue that this is an effective method, and it is less necessary that the timeframe is precise than that it is inspirational," Nutt explained.

SpaceX's mission to Mars is "something NASA should have done years ago," according to Nutt. Given that the space agency's vision has dimmed in the aftermath of the big moon walk and is hampered by politics, he believes SpaceX may fill the hole.

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