Tesla Fans Anger Is Becoming a Problem

Saturday, October 23, 2021 | Chimniii Desk

Key Points

This Monday, the Biden administration confirmed a Reuters report that it intends to hire Missy Cummings, a Duke University engineering professor and former fighter pilot, as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's senior adviser for safety.
In actuality, any senior adviser's power to establish policy is hampered by the Department of Transportation's organisational rigidities and the byzantine federal regulatory process.
If the NHTSA eventually orders Tesla to disable or restrict the use of Autopilot, thousands of Tesla customers will revolt against being deprived of a feature they believed they owned.
Tesla exploited the Trump government's failure to establish safeguards in the rapidly developing ADAS sector, and the Biden administration is now tasked with cleaning up the ensuing mess.

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They're organising to avert a necessary crackdown that has just just begun.

This Monday, the Biden administration confirmed a Reuters report that it intends to hire Missy Cummings, a Duke University engineering professor and former fighter pilot, as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's senior adviser for safety. Cummings is the director of Duke's Humans and Autonomy Lab and an expert in human factors, the study of human-machine interactions. That is a critical skill set for developing advanced driver-assistance systems, or ADAS, which are new automotive technologies that rely on secure vehicle-to-driver handoffs on the road. It's the critical link between today's mostly dumb automobiles and self-driving cars.

Cummings has studied advanced driver assistance systems for years and has been a vocal critic of Tesla's deployment of the Autopilot feature, which enables a vehicle to moderate speed, make turns, and respond to traffic signals autonomously (though, contrary to the feature's name, the driver must remain vigilant and prepared to intervene). Cummings' research indicated that Autopilot frequently fails to operate as intended, and in 2020, she criticised Tesla CEO Elon Musk's promise of a robotaxi service, tweeting, "My lab has been conducting controlled experiments on Tesla Autopilot and I can state categorically that they are not even close to being ready." My student should be compensated for hazardous duty work on this assignment."

Numerous technologists and automotive specialists applaud Cummings' nomination to the NHTSA. However, a sizable online community of Tesla enthusiasts is incensed. A few hours after the news emerged, Omar Qazi, a Tesla supporter with a sizable online following, wrote, "If they try to take away Autopilot from us, we will riot so fiercely that January 6 will resemble a day at Disneyland," closing with a laughing emoji. Qazi eventually deleted the post, apologising and asserting that it was a joke.

That may be true, but a sizable portion of the online Tesla community appeared to be in meltdown mode (including more than a few people who employed disturbing and misogynistic language). Within hours, a Change.org petition pleading with the Biden administration to rethink Cummings' appointment garnered over 18,000 signatures in two days. Elon Musk himself wrote, "Objectively, her track record is extremely prejudiced towards Tesla," before responding playfully to a fictitious account made in Cummings' name. Cummings appears to have deactivated her Twitter account on Thursday evening, following two days of internet hostility.

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Pic: Tesla's autopilot system

The hyperventilating reaction is unsurprising, given the cultlike loyalty Tesla has instilled among its fans, particularly those who are active on social media (who, to be fair, do not reflect all Tesla supporters). In actuality, any senior adviser's power to establish policy is hampered by the Department of Transportation's organisational rigidities and the byzantine federal regulatory process. Nobody should anticipate an Autopilot recall anytime soon, even if such action appears appropriate on safety reasons, as I previously suggested. (In a nutshell, Autopilot should have more robust driver monitoring systems, a less deceptive moniker, and be available exclusively on safe highways.)

However, could the Biden administration eventually compel Tesla to discontinue Autopilot or impose restrictions on its use? That appears to be becoming increasingly plausible. Five-year-old NHTSA guidance outlines the agency's authority to intervene if autonomous driving systems demonstrate "predictable abuse," a reasonable charge to level at Tesla in light of the plethora of YouTube videos of drivers sleeping or playing games in the driver's seat, despite Tesla's manual's warnings. NHTSA opened an investigation into a trend of Teslas colliding with stationary emergency vehicles earlier this summer, and the agency has pressed the company to explain why it did not recall a recent software update. Meanwhile, an increasing number of fatalities have been attributed to Autopilot, including one in California, in which a Tesla Model 3 going at 60 mph collided with a pickup truck, killing one of its occupants (the victim's family has filed a lawsuit against the firm). Tesla's proponents frequently use the almost 40,000 yearly traffic fatalities in the United States to argue that Autopilot is safer than human drivers, although there is less evidence to support that assertion.

Other federal agencies are exerting pressure as well: Jennifer Homendy, the new chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, has criticised Tesla for allowing untrained owners to use Full Self-Driving (the company's ADAS for urban environments) on public roads, while Democratic Senators Edward Markey and Richard Blumenthal have asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate Tesla for false advertising (according to the company, Full Self-Driving does not actually allow the car to drive itself).

If there was ever any doubt, the online uproar over Cummings' appointment demonstrates that a federal onslaught on Tesla will face intense opposition—much of it coming from the hundreds of thousands of Americans who own a Tesla vehicle (all Teslas purchased after October 2016 come equipped with Autopilot). And that resistance is almost certain to occur, despite abundant evidence that Tesla's rollout of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving vehicles endangers road users.

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Pic: Duke engineering professor Dr. Mary "Missy" Cummings as a special advisor for safety

The online outpouring of criticism to Cummings' appointment demonstrates that a federal onslaught on Tesla will face intense opposition—much of it from Tesla owners.

If the NHTSA eventually orders Tesla to disable or restrict the use of Autopilot, thousands of Tesla customers will revolt against being deprived of a feature they believed they owned. Even if they should never have been given access to that something in the first place.

While Qazi may have been joking about storming the Capitol if "they attempt to take Autopilot away from us," he was tapping into a profound psychological truth: People do not enjoy losing what they already own. In a seminal 1990 paper, behavioural economists Daniel Kahneman, Jack Knetsch, and Richard Thaler demonstrated that, contrary to conventional economic theory, test subjects placed a higher value on a coffee mug if it was given to them at the start of the experiment rather than having the opportunity to acquire it later. Kahneman and Thaler were later awarded the Nobel Prize for their work, and the phenomena they described has since been dubbed the endowment effect.

Personally, I've witnessed a high-flying transportation company leverage the endowment effect to translate client enthusiasm into political clout. I was working in the mayor's office of Washington, D.C. in 2011 when Uber launched its ride-hailing service in the city. Rather than seeking approval from regulators to operate, Uber went directly to potential customers, hosting parties, handing out free trip tickets, and swiftly establishing an enthusiastic customer base.

Uber was prepared for the anticipated government crackdown, which took the shape of a sting operation conducted by the chair of the District of Columbia Taxicab Commission. The corporation rallied its supporters by warning them that overbearing regulators could deprive them of their cherished service. Uber supporters were urged to send emails, write letters, and make phone calls to city officials. I received a few of these vehement complaints, but not quite as many as one of my colleagues, who arrived to lament "the Uber zombie horde." Although the company's strategy did not earn many friends at City Hall, it was effective: Within a few months, D.C. defined the legality of ride-hailing. Similar situations played out in cities around the country, many of whose leaders would undoubtedly welcome a do-over now that the enormous societal costs of ride-hailing have become obvious.

While Uber consciously built a base of popular support to shield itself from regulators, Tesla's permissive deployment of Autopilot may or may not have had a similar goal (the company might have been seeking to win over investors or appear ahead of competitors).

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Pic: Tesla Model3

Regardless of the rationale, Tesla has adopted a much laxer approach to ADAS deployment than other automakers, ignoring demands from the National Transportation Safety Board to install better driver monitoring systems and restrict Autopilot's use to highway situations. By avoiding such limits, Tesla increased the risk of drivers severely abusing Autopilot—but it also made using it as simple as pressing a button, giving owners the illusion of possessing an unrestricted tool.

If NHTSA forces Tesla to limit Autopilot — and regardless of the strength of NHTSA's accusations — many owners would feel cheated, just like Uber consumers in Washington, D.C. a decade ago. Tesla might use the following outpouring of rage to gain political clout. The corporation may instruct shareholders to aim their wrath onto the Biden administration, pleading for a regulatory reversal.

Alternatively, Tesla may decide to align with Republicans. Musk already appears to be playing footsie with the party, lamenting his exclusion from a White House event on electric vehicles and referring to Biden as "sleeping," a reference to one of Donald Trump's favourite epithets. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who signed a reward scheme targeting abortion providers into law, alleges that Musk "consistently informs me that he supports the social policies in the state of Texas," a charge Musk does not refute.

Whatever happens in the coming months, four years of inadequate monitoring at the Department of Transportation under Trump enabled Tesla to distribute Autopilot to hundreds of thousands of customers despite obvious safety concerns. The horse has departed the property; the endowment effect has magnified the value placed on Autopilot by these owners. This distinguishes Tesla from other automakers that have adopted a more responsible, safety-conscious approach to developing ADAS. These businesses have acted more ethically, yet have reaped no competitive advantage. Tesla exploited the Trump government's failure to establish safeguards in the rapidly developing ADAS sector, and the Biden administration is now tasked with cleaning up the ensuing mess.

You don't have to look far back in history to find an instance of federal officials slamming the door shut on a cutting-edge automobile manufacturer. In 2020, an EasyMile automated shuttle came to an abrupt halt in Columbus, Ohio, injuring a passenger. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration replied by temporarily ordering the company to suspend operations countrywide. Few people noticed, in part because just a few people had rode in an autonomous shuttle and nearly no one did so on a regular basis, effectively negating any endowment impact. As a result, there was little sense of loss as the service concluded.

It will be a different storey entirely if the Biden administration issues a stern warning to Tesla, insisting that the corporation finally address the safety dangers associated with Autopilot. Many Tesla owners will be incensed—even if they do not take to the streets. My advice to public authorities who are finally putting Tesla under the microscope: Brace yourselves. And continue.

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