August 17, 2021

 

Afghanistan altered in the blink of an eye this week. Young Afghans who grew up in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks will pay the highest price: despite the government's corruption and inefficiencies, the decades afterwards have seen historically extraordinary improvements in education, employment, and wages.

 

Women, who were frequently denied an education and exposed to horrible human rights violations under the Taliban, reaped the greatest benefits. Their aspirations and dreams have now been dashed. The Afghan people, however, will not be the only ones who will be affected. But how could this happen? What would the Taliban's Islamic Emirate's revival mean for India, the region, and the rest of the world?

 

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WAS THE TALIBAN'S SUCCESS AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE?

 

Kabul was expected to hold out for at least four weeks, according to US officials less than a week ago. They had previously predicted that the Taliban would take months to overrun major Afghan cities. Before that, they claimed that the Taliban would never be able to take control Afghanistan. These judgments, according to experts, either constitute a remarkable intelligence failure or a willful deception aimed at facilitating American disengagement.

 

Nobody should have been surprised, to be honest. Since the United States and its partners halted combat operations in 2014 — while they continued to use air power — the Taliban have progressively taken larger swaths of rural land. In 2017, the Afghan Army's 215 Corps, stationed in Helmand, was on the verge of collapsing, necessitating the US to send in troops, ostensibly on a "training" mission.

 

The Taliban gradually encircled the major towns, capturing distant rural districts. The process quickened drastically this summer, after the United States began withdrawing its remaining soldiers and curtailed air strikes against the Taliban.

 

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DO YOU THINK THE AFGHAN ARMY GAVE UP WITHOUT A FIGHT?

 

Although Afghan government troops numbered about 3,50,000, more than half of them were made up of poorly-disciplined, ill-trained, and frequently corrupt militia and police forces. The army was only 1,85,000 strong, with just about 60% of them being combat men. The army had to be dispersed among nearly 10,000 small outposts and checkpoints to secure the country's cities and towns, which were linked by an at best shaky road network.

 

In contrast, the Taliban could focus its 60,000 core forces and 90,000 militia on hit-and-run operations.

 

The Afghan military could overcome some of these difficulties if it had the support of air force. However, the United States' quick pullout left the Afghan Air Force without the majority of its maintenance contractors, who were largely Americans.

 

Second, the Afghan armed forces lacked the capability to strike the Taliban's supply and training bases beyond the Pakistani border. It didn't even have troops on the border to keep infiltration at bay. Consider the following figures: Over 3,20,000 Indian army soldiers are stationed in Jammu and Kashmir, which is one-third the strength of India's army, one third the size of Afghanistan.

 

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WHAT DOES THE RESURRECTION OF THE TALIBAN'S ISLAMIC EMIRATE MEAN FOR INDIA?

 

In the short term, the consequences are unlikely to be severe: despite the fact that India's borders on the map extend to Afghanistan, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir stands in the middle of the two countries, providing a geographical buffer. Pakistan has reduced cross-border infiltration by terrorist groups in recent years, not because of Afghanistan, but because it is afraid of war, which its economy is ill-prepared to meet. Things in Kashmir will remain steady as long as Pakistan keeps the jihadi tap shut.

 

THE FUTURE, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS NOT SO CERTAIN.

 

First, according to many UN reports, organisations such as Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba collaborate with the Taliban. These organisations could extend their training camps and bases in Afghanistan in the future, increasing their lethality and reach.

 

Despite pledges, the Taliban continues to harbour al-Qaeda. Its main fighting branch, the Haqqani Network, has close ties to an Islamic State wing that has trained and utilised Indian nationals in suicide assaults.

 

Finally, just as the Mujahideen's success over the Soviet Union inspired jihadists across the area a generation ago, the Taliban's win will inspire jihadists across the region.

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WILL THE TALIBAN'S SUCCESS DESTRUCT THE REGION?

 

It's almost certain. Uzbek and Tajik citizens who have been participating in Islamist insurgencies in Central Asia are among the Taliban's fighting units in northern Afghanistan. Jihadists from Xinjiang, China, have ties to the Taliban. It also has a substantial number of jihadists who have vehemently anti-Shia sentiments among its ranks. To make matters worse, the Taliban has established tight ties with drug traffickers and other criminal groups.

 

Pakistan, too, has reason to be concerned. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has conducted a violent insurgency against Pakistan and continues to stage terrorist attacks in Pakistan's Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, maintains close ties to the Taliban. In Pakistan, the TTP has also targeted Chinese interests.

 

Islamabad has always been the Taliban's major supporter — but now that it has what it wants, the Taliban will likely try to use its ties with the TTP to obtain more decision-making power.

 

The regional powers – Iran, Russia, China, and Pakistan - backed the Taliban in the hopes of driving the US out of the region and ensuring their own interests. But it's anyone's guess how long this partnership will last.

 

ARE THERE ANY CARDS LEFT FOR INDIA TO PLAY?

 

Since 9/11, India has donated $2 billion in aid to Afghanistan – a pittance in comparison to the US's roughly $2 trillion investment, but not insignificant either, given that the US's own spending on governance and development was only about $36 billion. The Salma Dam in western Afghanistan, the Delaram-Zaranj highway, and Afghanistan's — now defunct — Parliament building are among the notable investments.

 

Some of these investments, such as those made in Iran's Chabahar port, the hub of a trade corridor that freed Afghanistan from Karachi's chokehold, may give New Delhi some power. For obvious reasons, the Taliban will not want to be fully reliant on Pakistan.

 

New Delhi, on the other hand, is currently cut off from the rest of the world. India supported the anti-Taliban Northern Ties in the run-up to 9/11, but it could only do so because of its alliance with Iran and Russia. Those countries are now on the other side of the world. Even then, India was unable to prevent the Taliban's victory; only 9/11 was able to do so. It also drew the wrath of the terrorist organisation, which was reflected in the Taliban's backing for the hijackers of an Indian Airlines flight to Kandahar.

 

Now, the best course of action for New Delhi could be to wait on the sidelines and observe the game till an opportunity arises.

 

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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR AMERICA'S GLOBAL POSITION?

 

The United States' exit from Afghanistan comes as it prepares for a more serious confrontation with China, a developing powerhouse. Indeed, one of the reasons in favour of Afghanistan withdrawal was that it would free up resources for a far more crucial — from an American perspective — strategic fight.

 

The lessons from Afghanistan, on the other hand, will not be encouraging for smaller Asian countries considering their alternatives. Some will wonder if the US is truly willing to protect allies in distress. Are the promises it makes genuine? Is it willing to put up a fight?

 

The main result is that support for open-ended military engagements abroad is dwindling in the United States, and it is likely to dwindle even further in the future. This is the first generation of young Americans in a century to confront the prospect of becoming poorer than their parents in actual terms. Young Americans are in debt at never-before-seen amounts.

 

Despite the fact that the United States is the world's most powerful economic and technological power, it will be far more inward-looking than in the past.

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Source: CNN